I was definitely thinking along the same lines. I kind of like Houston alot, they might have their full lineup back healthy tonight, which I thought was good enough to contend for the title before the year started.
League sources indicate that the Heat are looking to acquire Jamario Moon in the rumored trade that would center around Jermaine O'Neal and Shawn Marion.
The New York Daily News has reported that the two teams have swapped medical records for both O'Neal and Marion.
Both players are struggling with injuries currently. O'Neal is bothered by a sore knee, and Marion has missed games with a groin injury
God damn it, I knew I should have just took Oklahoma City instead of NJ. I'm starting to get pissed off, I really hate losing, ever. I want to go on nice win streak starting tomorrow, every bet needs to be a winner. Just need to focus a tad more
Only reason i took Houston because it said Ming was probable. So of course he doesn't suit up. That's like 3 bets in a row where they've been wrong on the injury report
Well I get the Knick loss, McGrady and Artest both on their first back to back after being out for a long time, plus no Yao. I thought that motherfucker was playing, it said probable, don't think I would have taken it if I knew that.
With the Hornets, they've really stepped up their defense since West and Chandler went out. Just proves that if the team is committed to playing solid defense, you can throw one stud and any four scrubs out there and still get wins in the NBA. We see it here every night.
You're right, I'm a big believer in coaching, its one thing I make sure never to bring up in my discussions with LeBatard because he's so gay about the whole anti-coaching philosophy.
To me, it's more about the players respecting the coach, or not even respecting, just liking the coach. In any job you are going to want to try harder for the guy you enjoy working for or respect, especially in sports where when the body gives first, that mental motivation is the only thing that forces you to go forward at your weakest moment.
That's why I always thought Avery Johnson was unfairly criticized. Forget about him having the best regular winning percentage in the history of the sport, clearly his players enjoyed working for him, and they never took any nights off throughout his entire tenure there. The game to game preparation was flawless. True he made many big mistakes, but in that spot any young coach would do the same. It's the exact same with Spoelstra, at times he does questionable things, but the overriding defense that is played and hustle trumps any of his shortcomings which will only get better with experience.
I'm definitely analyzing and making notes of betting trends now that we are in our third week. Like I'm finding out that with 7 point teasers, they are best utilized first for a home team with a spread around 7-10, and 2nd, for a home underdog. Road underdogs are kinda shady because any home game on any given night has the chance to turn into a blowout. It also seems silly to add 7 points to a team that is favored by anywhere from 1-6. Switching it from -6 to +1 just doesn't utilize the number well enough. If you're that unsure about that particular team to have go to such proportions, might as well just add the 7 to the underdog and then you have 13 more points to work with.
And then from there, any game where the spread is 5 or less should only be bet straight up or parlayed buying the maximum of 3 points. The best kind of straight money bets to me seem like the ones where you have a home team favored by 1-5. Anything more than 5 points as your biggest money bet just seems kind of dicey unless you have a powerhouse vs the scum of the league, but in those games the spreads are usually adjusted accordingly to a number so high you can't trust it.
There's also something about teams and their expectations. Seems like every team has a tipping point where as soon as they start playing better than expected and the lines eventually adjust, the moment almost gets too big for them, and they come back to life. This is definitely true for young teams that haven't had much success before.
Minnesota is on a fuckin tear. They covered 11 out of the last 12 bets! Same with Oklahoma, them and Cleveland are the two best teams in the NBA by far against the spread.
Another thing that is really killing me which I am now aware of, when I lose a bet with a certain team, I tend to be more hesitant about taking them the next game, because the feeling of them losing and me losing money because of it makes me automatically first think loss. Conversely, when a team wins that I didn't have correctly, sometimes I exacerbate the situation by trying to take them the next time no matter who they play.
Also with the media, the more I read the newspapers the more I try to read between the lines and decode what the overall spirits of the team really are. That's probably the trickiest part of betting and the part that makes me cringe the most. Sometimes one little quote from a coach can make you a believer for that night, and make you a winner. Other times misinterpreting the dialogue can make you have false hope when if you didn't read the paper you would have never even thought about liking that team to begin with. I think overall its still a must to read the papers, because some information is just too valuable not to know.
Finally, it has been a little unpredictable so far, but nothing too crazy where I'm discouraged by anything. I look at the big picture, it's probably my 5th year of betting the NBA, first without the League Pass. Usually when I lose alot of money its when i got really high on something and made a bet out of character. Really the whole key should be not to try and just get rich in one night, but to not run out of money so you can stay interested and keep learning from your mistakes. Eventually if you can stay in it long enough you'll have it down to a science. It's just a matter of accepting that there will always be more to learn, and only time will make a better the best better.
I'm noticing that its almost equally as important to really focus right where you're making the bet as it is for all the research that goes into a bet. I eventually get to a point where it's like eeny meeny miny mo, and that's the part where you try to visualize the future as best as you can. To me that's the best part.
And last, I'm realizing that there are only two kinds of bets: no-brainers and non no brainers. Once a bet is identifying as a non no-brainer, it really needs to be respected and dissected, and never underestimated either way.
Your ability to tease games 10 points while I can't is giving you an unfair competitive advantage. I'm gonna have to ask you to please refrain from doing that from now on.
nah I actually took LA and Cleveland. Orlando and Denver I also liked, but had to compartmentalize them a notch below the other two. Want to make sure Orlando hasn't completely lost their mojo before betting on them again, and Denver, while they should kill Memphis, I don't know, guess its because they're on a 9 game losing streak. It's one of my golden rules, to stay away from betting against teams that have lost more than 7-8 in a row. Cause eventually pride is going to kick in and they will upset somebody. I don't want to be on the losing end of it when it happens.
You can probably starting teasing Memphis 7-10 points now regularly and they'll cover more than not until they finally win. I've seen it so many times. When Boston lost 19 in a row, the more they lost, the closer the games were. The last 10 on that streak easily covered any 7 point tease.
I haven't checked the injury report yet, I know Melo's coming back soon. I'm starting to believe that this is Denver's year to make a deep run into the playoffs. That franchise has sucked ever since I started watching basketball. I've never seen them advance to the 2nd round in 19 years. Actually no I take that back, in 92 when they were the 8 seed they upset Seattle. Then they went down 0-3 to Utah, but came back and won 3 in a row before finally bowing out graciously in Game 7. They had Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Bryant Stith, Reggie Williams, LaPhonso Ellis, and Mutombo, with Robert Pack and Bison Dele on the bench.
No matter what the Western Conference playoffs are going to be sick. Right now it feels like the 4 home teams are going to be LA, SA, Denver, and New Orleans. That would make Portland, Houston, Utah Phoenix or Dallas the road teams. One of those road teams will definitely advance.
If I lose I might be out too, but only until tomorrow when I deposit more money, lol... I only started with $30. Again, I think its just as important to keep playing as it is to make money. Betting will only keep you more interested in the games which as a result will make you more knowledgeable going forward. Any lapses where you stop paying attention can only cause you to miss out on information that can be used for future bets.
I guess also for me I'm still in the hunt for the radio job, so anything that's going to make me pay more attention to sports will only benefit me. When I don't bet or if I'm not in a fantasy league for alot of money, I definitely don't follow sports as much. Especially baseball, I wouldn't have any interest in it, but because it's by far the best fantasy sport, baseball season to me is as exciting as the NBA.
Im in 2 fantasy basketball leagues. One is of all my friends and the payout is 500$, and the other is a 200$ payout. So I am absolutely obsessed with fantasy basketball. Heres my Squad
Jose Calderon Kevin Martin Tony Parker Lebron James Jeff Green Al Jefferson Al Horford Andrew Bynum Manu Ginobli Boris Diaw Russel Westbrook Kirk Hinrich Ramon Sessions
I never believed in this Denver team from the start, and I still have my doubts. But they sure are making it hard for me to not believe. Billups is so steady, and Nene has sustained his play. If JR Smith could ever reach his potential he will be a tough out.
Their play up front has quietly been steady all season, and its ironic because all 3 players are comeback players having to overcome some major crisis, Nene with cancer, Martin with injuries to both knees, and Andersen with drugs and whatnot. Also just watching them play, their defense has been exceptionally good, they really do a great job with rotating.
The Bobcats have now beaten LA 5 of the last 6 times. Just one of those weird trends that doesn't make any sense but needs to be respected nonetheless. Just a mental note for the future, some teams just play well against certain other teams for whatever reason.
I went to Orlando for a job interview and then decided to stay overnight and party, wound up boning my ex girl. But yea im back, unfortunately with only 17 bucks left. So there is no room for error anymore. I knew Orlando was gonna win tonight.
39 comments:
im got work from 6-1 tonight
I might like Suns and Portland as a 2 team teaser. Other than that nothing really jumps on me
I did a 3 team teaser teased down 8 pts
Suns +3.5 @ Washington
Blazers -2.5 @ Clippers
76ers +11 @ New Orleans
I was definitely thinking along the same lines. I kind of like Houston alot, they might have their full lineup back healthy tonight, which I thought was good enough to contend for the title before the year started.
Wow that line just came up for me on Bodog. Yea I wish I included Houston in that teaser.
Maybe ima do
2 team parlay
Houston -2.5
Suns -4.5
League sources indicate that the Heat are looking to acquire Jamario Moon in the rumored trade that would center around Jermaine O'Neal and Shawn Marion.
The New York Daily News has reported that the two teams have swapped medical records for both O'Neal and Marion.
Both players are struggling with injuries currently. O'Neal is bothered by a sore knee, and Marion has missed games with a groin injury
I don't see why there's a need for Moon. Just another unnecessary guy that's going to take time away from Dorrell Wright's development.
did 2 bets....
3 team 7 point teaser
Blazers -3.5
Rockets +6
76ers +10
3 team parlay
Wolves +6.5
Suns -1.5
Nets +4.5
God damn it, I knew I should have just took Oklahoma City instead of NJ. I'm starting to get pissed off, I really hate losing, ever. I want to go on nice win streak starting tomorrow, every bet needs to be a winner. Just need to focus a tad more
Fuck, Philly is totally blowing it
doesn't even matter, Houston fucked my day....Fuck the basketball gods today
Only reason i took Houston because it said Ming was probable. So of course he doesn't suit up. That's like 3 bets in a row where they've been wrong on the injury report
Believe it or not I actually feel like I'm learning each day. Just gotta hang around til it all comes together.
I let it all ride on Portland to salvage another day
I cant believe the Sixers got raped!! And how the fuck is Houston gonna lose?? Im pissed
I will slap the fuck out of every little know it all blogger whos opinion just follows wherever the wind takes em
Well I get the Knick loss, McGrady and Artest both on their first back to back after being out for a long time, plus no Yao. I thought that motherfucker was playing, it said probable, don't think I would have taken it if I knew that.
With the Hornets, they've really stepped up their defense since West and Chandler went out. Just proves that if the team is committed to playing solid defense, you can throw one stud and any four scrubs out there and still get wins in the NBA. We see it here every night.
Comes to down to coaching man, and the players buying into it. Thats why Spo is doing absolutely fantastic
You're right, I'm a big believer in coaching, its one thing I make sure never to bring up in my discussions with LeBatard because he's so gay about the whole anti-coaching philosophy.
To me, it's more about the players respecting the coach, or not even respecting, just liking the coach. In any job you are going to want to try harder for the guy you enjoy working for or respect, especially in sports where when the body gives first, that mental motivation is the only thing that forces you to go forward at your weakest moment.
That's why I always thought Avery Johnson was unfairly criticized. Forget about him having the best regular winning percentage in the history of the sport, clearly his players enjoyed working for him, and they never took any nights off throughout his entire tenure there. The game to game preparation was flawless. True he made many big mistakes, but in that spot any young coach would do the same. It's the exact same with Spoelstra, at times he does questionable things, but the overriding defense that is played and hustle trumps any of his shortcomings which will only get better with experience.
I'm definitely analyzing and making notes of betting trends now that we are in our third week. Like I'm finding out that with 7 point teasers, they are best utilized first for a home team with a spread around 7-10, and 2nd, for a home underdog. Road underdogs are kinda shady because any home game on any given night has the chance to turn into a blowout. It also seems silly to add 7 points to a team that is favored by anywhere from 1-6. Switching it from -6 to +1 just doesn't utilize the number well enough. If you're that unsure about that particular team to have go to such proportions, might as well just add the 7 to the underdog and then you have 13 more points to work with.
And then from there, any game where the spread is 5 or less should only be bet straight up or parlayed buying the maximum of 3 points. The best kind of straight money bets to me seem like the ones where you have a home team favored by 1-5. Anything more than 5 points as your biggest money bet just seems kind of dicey unless you have a powerhouse vs the scum of the league, but in those games the spreads are usually adjusted accordingly to a number so high you can't trust it.
There's also something about teams and their expectations. Seems like every team has a tipping point where as soon as they start playing better than expected and the lines eventually adjust, the moment almost gets too big for them, and they come back to life. This is definitely true for young teams that haven't had much success before.
Minnesota is on a fuckin tear. They covered 11 out of the last 12 bets! Same with Oklahoma, them and Cleveland are the two best teams in the NBA by far against the spread.
Another thing that is really killing me which I am now aware of, when I lose a bet with a certain team, I tend to be more hesitant about taking them the next game, because the feeling of them losing and me losing money because of it makes me automatically first think loss. Conversely, when a team wins that I didn't have correctly, sometimes I exacerbate the situation by trying to take them the next time no matter who they play.
Also with the media, the more I read the newspapers the more I try to read between the lines and decode what the overall spirits of the team really are. That's probably the trickiest part of betting and the part that makes me cringe the most. Sometimes one little quote from a coach can make you a believer for that night, and make you a winner. Other times misinterpreting the dialogue can make you have false hope when if you didn't read the paper you would have never even thought about liking that team to begin with. I think overall its still a must to read the papers, because some information is just too valuable not to know.
Finally, it has been a little unpredictable so far, but nothing too crazy where I'm discouraged by anything. I look at the big picture, it's probably my 5th year of betting the NBA, first without the League Pass. Usually when I lose alot of money its when i got really high on something and made a bet out of character. Really the whole key should be not to try and just get rich in one night, but to not run out of money so you can stay interested and keep learning from your mistakes. Eventually if you can stay in it long enough you'll have it down to a science. It's just a matter of accepting that there will always be more to learn, and only time will make a better the best better.
I'm noticing that its almost equally as important to really focus right where you're making the bet as it is for all the research that goes into a bet. I eventually get to a point where it's like eeny meeny miny mo, and that's the part where you try to visualize the future as best as you can. To me that's the best part.
And last, I'm realizing that there are only two kinds of bets: no-brainers and non no brainers. Once a bet is identifying as a non no-brainer, it really needs to be respected and dissected, and never underestimated either way.
4 Team Teaser?
Orlando +.5
Cavs -4
Nuggets +3
Lakers -1.5
Teased down to 10 pts
Your ability to tease games 10 points while I can't is giving you an unfair competitive advantage. I'm gonna have to ask you to please refrain from doing that from now on.
If I lose this im done man
Lol, its only when I have 4 or more teams that im teasing. If its 3 or under I can tease 4,5,6,and 8 I believe
nah I actually took LA and Cleveland. Orlando and Denver I also liked, but had to compartmentalize them a notch below the other two. Want to make sure Orlando hasn't completely lost their mojo before betting on them again, and Denver, while they should kill Memphis, I don't know, guess its because they're on a 9 game losing streak. It's one of my golden rules, to stay away from betting against teams that have lost more than 7-8 in a row. Cause eventually pride is going to kick in and they will upset somebody. I don't want to be on the losing end of it when it happens.
You can probably starting teasing Memphis 7-10 points now regularly and they'll cover more than not until they finally win. I've seen it so many times. When Boston lost 19 in a row, the more they lost, the closer the games were. The last 10 on that streak easily covered any 7 point tease.
I haven't checked the injury report yet, I know Melo's coming back soon. I'm starting to believe that this is Denver's year to make a deep run into the playoffs. That franchise has sucked ever since I started watching basketball. I've never seen them advance to the 2nd round in 19 years. Actually no I take that back, in 92 when they were the 8 seed they upset Seattle. Then they went down 0-3 to Utah, but came back and won 3 in a row before finally bowing out graciously in Game 7. They had Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Bryant Stith, Reggie Williams, LaPhonso Ellis, and Mutombo, with Robert Pack and Bison Dele on the bench.
No matter what the Western Conference playoffs are going to be sick. Right now it feels like the 4 home teams are going to be LA, SA, Denver, and New Orleans. That would make Portland, Houston, Utah Phoenix or Dallas the road teams. One of those road teams will definitely advance.
If I lose I might be out too, but only until tomorrow when I deposit more money, lol... I only started with $30. Again, I think its just as important to keep playing as it is to make money. Betting will only keep you more interested in the games which as a result will make you more knowledgeable going forward. Any lapses where you stop paying attention can only cause you to miss out on information that can be used for future bets.
I guess also for me I'm still in the hunt for the radio job, so anything that's going to make me pay more attention to sports will only benefit me. When I don't bet or if I'm not in a fantasy league for alot of money, I definitely don't follow sports as much. Especially baseball, I wouldn't have any interest in it, but because it's by far the best fantasy sport, baseball season to me is as exciting as the NBA.
Im in 2 fantasy basketball leagues. One is of all my friends and the payout is 500$, and the other is a 200$ payout. So I am absolutely obsessed with fantasy basketball. Heres my Squad
Jose Calderon
Kevin Martin
Tony Parker
Lebron James
Jeff Green
Al Jefferson
Al Horford
Andrew Bynum
Manu Ginobli
Boris Diaw
Russel Westbrook
Kirk Hinrich
Ramon Sessions
I never believed in this Denver team from the start, and I still have my doubts. But they sure are making it hard for me to not believe. Billups is so steady, and Nene has sustained his play. If JR Smith could ever reach his potential he will be a tough out.
Their play up front has quietly been steady all season, and its ironic because all 3 players are comeback players having to overcome some major crisis, Nene with cancer, Martin with injuries to both knees, and Andersen with drugs and whatnot. Also just watching them play, their defense has been exceptionally good, they really do a great job with rotating.
Well, so much for Orlando's mojo being gone.
Don't get it, Cleveland has already given up 40 points to Sacramento with 9 minutes still to go in the first half. WTF?
I know, sactown is pissing me off. No way they can sustain it
Wow look at Lebrons numbers in the 1st half.
Everything looks great, now all we gotta do is hope Denver finishes the Job, and L.A does what there supposed to do.
Justin.TV can provide a bit of relief from league pass.
UNFUCKING REAL!!
The Bobcats have now beaten LA 5 of the last 6 times. Just one of those weird trends that doesn't make any sense but needs to be respected nonetheless. Just a mental note for the future, some teams just play well against certain other teams for whatever reason.
I went to Orlando for a job interview and then decided to stay overnight and party, wound up boning my ex girl. But yea im back, unfortunately with only 17 bucks left. So there is no room for error anymore. I knew Orlando was gonna win tonight.
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